Bitcoin volatility has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a decade, a sign of a major structural shift in market behavior.
According to new data from Ecoinometrics, Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility is near the 10th percentile, meaning the current market swings are calmer than 90% of all weekly periods since 2015. This suggests that Bitcoin is becoming a more stable asset, even though it continues to show growth.
Ecoinometrics data
A heat map based on Bitcoin’s weekly volatility percentile rankings over a 30-day rolling period illustrates a clear trend towards calmer market conditions.
In previous years, especially between 2016 and 2021, the chart showed deep red zones, indicating multiple weeks of high volatility. In contrast, the chart for late 2024 and 2025 is dominated by blue and green zones, representing sustained periods of lower volatility.
This may indicate that Bitcoin begins to behave like a mature financial asset, capable of generating high returns without intense short-term price fluctuations.
For portfolio managers focused on risk management, this trend is critical. Bitcoin’s emerging stability allows it to be included in diversified portfolios without violating traditional risk thresholds.
Meanwhile, the chart below shows how Bitcoin price is forming a strong bullish pattern on the weekly chart. BTC is currently trading at $109,292 and has formed a clear ascending channel on the weekly chart. This pattern is marked by two ascending parallel trend lines that capture the upper highs and lower lows since late 2022.
BTC/USD weekly chart with ascending channel pattern. Data from TradingView
A rising channel is a bullish pattern that shows sustained upward momentum within a defined range. The 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $85,136, acts as strong dynamic support, with every significant decline since mid-2023 bottoming out on this key indicator.
