Bloomberg senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone said he believes Bitcoin (BTC) may fall to $40,000 despite its price rising above $106,000 today.
McGlone attributed his radically bearish outlook to macroeconomic trends, particularly the risk of deflation and a prolonged recession, which could weigh heavily on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
He pointed to the recent peak in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio in May, suggesting that was the maximum, especially if US stock markets start to decline.
Bitcoin to gold ratio. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence
Bitcoin $40,000, Gold $4000; Inflation vs. Deflation, Recession — Bitcoin’s Falling Price Vs. Gold in 2025 May Reflect Expectation of a Typical Cycle When deflation follows inflation,» McGlone wrote.
While markets have largely ignored fears of a 2023 recession, McGlone believes the economic downturn has been delayed.
In this case, investors may turn to traditional safe havens like gold if the economy contracts and the S&P 500 falls to the 4000 level. Thus, gold could rise to $4000 per ounce, and the Bitcoin to gold ratio could fall to around 10, implying a BTC price of around $40,000.
Such a decline would represent a drop of more than 60% from the current price of $106,600.
Bitcoin Price Change Over 24 Hours. Data from CoinGecko
