Traders polymarket and Kalshi lost millions in bad bets after the betting platforms failed to take into account the results of the latest Dutch election polls.
Until the final hours of the Dutch elections on October 29, users polymarket and Kalshi were confident that Geert Wilders’ nationalist party, Partij voor de Vrijheid (Party for Freedom), would easily win.
Meanwhile, all major polls showed the socially liberal Democrats 66 (D66), led by Rob Jetten, gaining ground. After the first exit poll, D66’s chances rose from 5% to 100% in just a few minutes.
According to reports, 98% of the votes counted in the Dutch parliamentary elections showed that both the centrist-liberal D66 party and the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) will win 26 seats each in the 150-seat lower house of parliament. For Geert Wilders’ PVV, this meant a loss of 11 seats.
This result came as a surprise to many, especially traders who had been placing large bets on the game’s success in the prediction market. polymarketKalshi wasn’t any luckier—traders overestimated Wilders’s «Party for Freedom» right up until election day.
Data polymarket Analysts show that the Dutch elections were less a test of foresight than a test of conviction. Many traders continued to bet on the PVV to lose for ideological reasons and refused to adjust their positions even when the latest polls decisively favored the D66.
However, there were also traders, such as «Wisser» and «ciro2», who took the survey data into account and made six-figure profits.